Siberian center for Environmental Research and Training

Event Preliminary Program

The YS School program presented at

Preliminary Conference Program


Session. Subeasonal and long-term meteorological and climatic predictions.

Invited Lectures

William Merryfield Seasonal prediction of the cryosphere

Laura Ferranti Early warning of cold spells and heat waves

Yvan Orsolini Impact of snow initialisation on subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts

Adrian Tompkins How do S2S subseasonal systems beat seasonal forecasts?

Oral Papers

Martynova Yu.V. Spatial-temporal features of the influence of the autumn snow cover on the atmospheric conditions of the subsequent winter season in Siberia

Shhermuhamedov U.A. Accuracy of monthly forecasts Uzhydromet

Short Oral Papers

Fadeev R.Yu. Multicomponent numerical models in the problem of long-term weather forecasting

Savelyeva E.S. Possible options for the development of the Arctic polar vortex in the spring

Mizyak V.G. Development of the ensemble system of the medium-term weather forecast in the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. Used observations and features of their assimilation

Rogutov V.S. Development of the ensemble forecast system of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. Preparing the ensemble of the initial data


The sixteenth session of the CIS Climate Forum on seasonal forecasts (NEACOF-16)

Invited Papers

Khan V.M. Current Development Questions for SEACOF

Kulikova I.A. Large-scale atmospheric variability modes affecting the formation of climatic conditions during the summer period in the territory of Northern Eurasia

Tishchenko V.A. Assessment of the climate system for the upcoming season according to the monitoring and forecasts of the world's leading forecasting centers. A preliminary version of the consensus forecast for the summer of 2019.

Khan V.M. The results of a comparative analysis of actual and forecast data (SEACOF-15 consensus forecast) of surface air temperature and precipitation for the territory of the CIS

Short Oral Papers

Arthur Gevorgyan Discussion of the success of the previous forecast for Armenia
TBD Discussion of the success of the previous forecast for Belarus
Beldibaev Erkebulan Discussion of the success of the previous forecast for Kazakhstan
Isaev Erkin Discussion of the success of the previous forecast for Kyrgyzstan
Roska Gennady Discussion of the success of the previous forecast for Moldova
Sattor Saidov Discussion of the success of the previous forecast for Tajikistan
TBD Discussion of the success of the previous forecast for Turkmenistan
Shermuhamedov Ulugbek Discussion of the success of the previous forecast for Uzbekistan

Group discussions Generalization of prognostic information and final wording of the consensus forecast for the summer of 2019.
Questions and Discussions



Session. Modeling and analysis of global and regional climate and related atmospheric processes.

Invited Papers

Perevedentsev Yu.P. Current climate changes in the trophostratosphere and interaction between the layers

Platov G.A. Study of the role of atmospheric forcing in the formation of the Arctic ice field

Volodin E.M. The mechanism of natural climate variations in the Arctic and the North Atlantic according to the climate model of the ICM RAS

Tolstykh MA Reproduction of the winter atmospheric circulation in Northern Eurasia by a model of the atmosphere and a joint model of the atmosphere and the ocean

Krupchatnikov V.N. On the interaction of variability of the mean flow and vortexes and systematic errors in models

Oral Papers

Kononova N.K. Formation of circulation mechanisms of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres

Zuev S.V. The determination of the state of the sky by solar radiation

Yudin M.S. Calculation of parameters of gravitational currents in the atmosphere using the finite element model

Serykh I.V. El Nino forecast based on global atmospheric oscillation

Nemirovskaya L.G. The regional aspect of the study of climate change on the example of studying some characteristics of precipitation regime (determined by different criteria) based on the creation of specialized arrays of their data for the south-east of Western Siberia

Anisimov A.E. Model test and added value from convective-resolving WRF simulations in Crimea

Dolgikh S. Approaches and results of assessing the likely climate change in Kazakhstan

Vargin P.N. Analysis of the variability of storm tracks from observational and modeling data

Platov G.A. Reverse research relations of the climate system in the formation of climate trends
Ushakov K.V. Features of numerical simulation of the climate of the tropics of the Pacific Ocean in a global eddy-resolving experiment

Ryazanov A.A. Comparative analysis of the assessment of hydrothermal conditions of the Tomsk region, using different coefficients of aridity

Volkova M.A. Spatio-temporal distribution of periods of low and high temperatures in the south of Western Siberia

Cheredko N.N. Regional features of energy redistribution in the climate system

Short Oral Papers

Yagovkina E.A. Wavelet Analysis Results
non-periodic fluctuations in sea level at Cape Kamenny (Ob Bay, Kara Sea)

Savelyeva E.S. Features of the dynamics of the Arctic polar vortex with a sudden stratospheric warming in 1984/1985.

Morozova S.V. The study of the mutual influence of global circulation objects using the methods of analysis of variance
Alimpieva MA. Comprehensive Study of Atmospheric Action Centers of the Atlantic-European Hemispheric Sector

Tarasevich M.A. Influence of various parameters of the climate model of ICM RAS on the reproduction of extreme precipitation

Kraevskaya N.Yu. Numerical simulation of breeze circulation using the WRF-ARW model

Shokurova I.G. Wind speed and wind stress vorticity over the Black Sea according to NCER \ NCAR and ERA Interim reanalyses: Seasonal and inter-annual variability

Zaporozhtsev I.F. Mesoscale and submesoscale processes in the polar front in the Barents Sea

Evstigneeva N.A. Analysis of the dynamic and energy characteristics of the circulation in the area near the western coast of Crimea and the north-western shelf with the assimilation of observations of temperature and salinity

Kozlova L.F. Analysis of tropopause characteristics in the arctic region
Semenova A.V. Assessment of the contribution of climatic factors to the formation of a flood wave



Session. Development of Earth System Model components.

Invited Papers

Golubeva E.N. Assessment of the contribution of the Atlantic and Pacific waters in the process of reducing the Arctic sea ice

Platov G.A. Investigation of the processes of cascading on
the shelf of the Arctic seas

Oral Papers

Veremskaya P.S. Subpolar Northern Atlantic longterm variability and deep convection simulated with the regional eddy-resolving ocean model

Shashkin V.V. Comparison of grids with quasi-uniform resolution on a sphere using the example of the numerical solution of shallow water equations

Chernov I.A. Joint numerical modeling of geophysical and biochemical processes in the oceans and seas with ice

Markova N.V. Features of the deep circulation of the Black Sea based on the results of reanalysis, climatic and prognostic calculations

Puzina O.S. Results of numerical simulation of the circulation of the Sea of ??Azov
Senderov M.V. Implementing nested nets in the Black Sea basin

Mizyuk A.I. Joint modeling of the circulation of the Black, Azov and Marmara Seas with high spatial resolution

Fedorov V.N. Geophysical causes of global climate change

Short Oral Papers

Prigarin S.M. Quasi-Gaussian models of the stochastic structure of atmospheric clouds

Molchanov M.S. Modeling the dynamics of the ecosystem of the central part of the Arctic basin in a changing climate

Basharin D.V. Estimation of the variability of surface air temperature and geopotential based on the data from the project of reanalysis of the 20th century

Dymova O.A. Evaluation of the sensitivity of the results of modeling the circulation of the Black Sea to the choice of boundary conditions on the free surface

Dovgaya S.V. Calculation and analysis of average seasonal velocity fields of the waters of the Sea of ??Marmara on the example of 2008

Selivanova Yu.V. Influence of ice cover in the Arctic on turbulent heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere

Naumov L.M. Water balance of the central part of the Norwegian Sea in a modern climate

Zatsepin A. G. Variability of the flow field in the coastal zone of the Black Sea in the region of Gelendzhik


Session. Land surface processes: observations, models, data assimilation.

Invited Paper

Lykosov V.N. Interaction of the atmospheric boundary layer with the active land layer and water bodies: observations and modeling

Oral Papers

Korotkova E.M. Satellite monitoring of changes in the vegetation cover of the Arctic under the influence of anthropogenic load

Ustinova I.G. Simulation of the response of annual rings of conifers to average daily changes in UV-B radiation according to radiometric and tomographic measurements

Dyukarev E.A. Assessment of carbon imbalances in forested wetlands during climate change from observational and modeling data

Kiselev M.V. Formation of the temperature regime of drained and natural wetlands in dry and overmoody years

Malinovskaya E.A. Simulation of the flow around 3D surfaces in the study of changes in aeolian relief forms

Makhnorylova S.V. Initialization of the moisture content of the active layer of the underlying surface for multilayer soil parameterization in the SLAV model

Short Oral Papers

Orlovsky A.N. Study of the spatial and temporal variability of temperature fields in the forests of the Murmansk region in the summer period (according to satellite sounding data for 2009-2018)

Antokhina O. Yu. Ratio of methane emissions from wetlands and the most extreme fires in Western Siberia based on AMIS / CAMS data

Martynova Yu.V. Assessment of CO2 flux variation for forest ecosystems of Russia in the context of climate change using the JSBACH model

Shtabkin Yu.A. Regional photochemical sources of tropospheric ozone in Siberia and the ETR
Frolov D.M. The design scheme of the depth of soil freezing on the basis of data on the features of seasonal snowfall, accumulation of snow thickness and temperature changes

Antokhin P.N. Simulation of methane concentration dynamics for the territory of Western Siberia in the conditions of summer atmospheric blocking



Session. Computational and Informational Technologies for Earth Sciences.

Invited Papers

Penenko V.V. Inverse problems for the study of climate-ecological processes in the conditions of anthropogenic impacts.

Klimova E.G. Bayesian approach to the problem of data assimilation based on the use of ensembles of forecasts and observations

Okladnikov I.G. Software package for cloud analysis of climate change and the environment: methods and approaches

Oral Papers

Platonov V.S. Creation of a long-term archive of high-resolution hydrometeorological information for the Russian Arctic: methodology and first results.

Lubkov A.S. Development of a model forecast of regional climate anomalies using artificial neural networks

Zarov E.A. Computer algorithms for typology of plant communities and mapping of forest-swamp areas

Dmitriev E.V. Automated classification of local meteorological phenomena based on ground-based measurements

Tolstikov A.V. Data for modeling processes in the White Sea

Vazaeva N.V. Statistics of convective formations in the atmospheric boundary layer based on acoustic sounding data

Short Oral Papers

Luferov V.S. Using artificial intelligence technology to analyze atmospheric circulation

Gosteva A.D. Numerical study of thermal fronts of the Barents Sea using gridded satellite sensing data using R programming language

Mukatova Zh.S. Numerical solution of inverse problems for impurity transformation models


Session. Future Earth Program and Northern Eurasia Future Initiative.

Invited Papers

Pavel Groisman Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) Focus on Human-Associated Extreme Events

Solomina Olga International program The Future of the Earth and Russia's participation in it

Georgiadi A.G. Long-term low-water and high-water
periods on the major rivers of Russia

Ginzburg A.S. The role of anthropogenic heat flux in regional climate processes

Gordov E.P. Thematic virtual research environment for analyzing climate change and its regional effects
Chernokulsky A.V. Dangerous phenomena of convective weather in Russia: statistics, interannual variability, risks of occurrence in the 21st century

Oral Papers

Gulsara Monkaeva Specialized Climate Services in Decision-Making in Kazakhstan

Platonov V.S. Spatial patterns of distribution of statistical characteristics of extreme wind speeds on. Sakhalin according to observations and high-resolution modeling.

Gordova Yu.E. Web portal for raising awareness of the population and decision makers about the implications of climate change for the region

Fedotova E.V. Development of estimates of wind energy potential for the territory of Russia

Kivva K.K. Climate impact on the distribution of the main Russian fisheries in the North Atlantic

Tartakovsky V.A. Monitoring the stress state of regional geosystems

Kostrykin S.V. Study of the influence of the variability of the optical parameters of sulphate aerosol on the characteristics of geoengineering effects in stabilizing the global surface temperature at a given level

Short Oral Papers

Kuchugura A.D. Study of the potential of recreational resources and the level of fire danger of certain territories of the Murmansk region

Kruglova E. Extreme Climate Indices in Observations, Reanalyses and Model Forecasts

Mirsaeva N.A. Analysis of aridity characteristics in the last millennium according to calculations with an ensemble of climate models