Siberian center for Environmental Research and Training

Event Preliminary Program

The YS School program presented at http://indico.ictp.it/event/8739/

Preliminary Conference Program

3.06

Session. Subeasonal and long-term meteorological and climatic predictions.

Invited Lectures

William Merryfield Seasonal prediction of the cryosphere

Laura Ferranti Early warning of cold spells and heat waves

Yvan Orsolini Impact of snow initialisation on subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts

Adrian Tompkins How do S2S subseasonal systems beat seasonal forecasts?

Oral Papers

Martynova Yu.V. Spatial-temporal features of the influence of the autumn snow cover on the atmospheric conditions of the subsequent winter season in Siberia
 

Shhermuhamedov U.A. Accuracy of monthly forecasts Uzhydromet
 

Short Oral Papers

Fadeev R.Yu. Multicomponent numerical models in the problem of long-term weather forecasting
 

Savelyeva E.S. Possible options for the development of the Arctic polar vortex in the spring
 

Mizyak V.G. Development of the ensemble system of the medium-term weather forecast in the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. Used observations and features of their assimilation
 

Rogutov V.S. Development of the ensemble forecast system of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. Preparing the ensemble of the initial data

 

The sixteenth session of the CIS Climate Forum on seasonal forecasts (NEACOF-16)

Invited Papers

Khan V.M. Current Development Questions for SEACOF
 

Kulikova I.A. Large-scale atmospheric variability modes affecting the formation of climatic conditions during the summer period in the territory of Northern Eurasia
 

Tishchenko V.A. Assessment of the climate system for the upcoming season according to the monitoring and forecasts of the world's leading forecasting centers. A preliminary version of the consensus forecast for the summer of 2019.
 

Khan V.M. The results of a comparative analysis of actual and forecast data (SEACOF-15 consensus forecast) of surface air temperature and precipitation for the territory of the CIS
 

Short Oral Papers

Arthur Gevorgyan Discussion of the success of the previous forecast for Armenia
TBD Discussion of the success of the previous forecast for Belarus
Beldibaev Erkebulan Discussion of the success of the previous forecast for Kazakhstan
Isaev Erkin Discussion of the success of the previous forecast for Kyrgyzstan
Roska Gennady Discussion of the success of the previous forecast for Moldova
Sattor Saidov Discussion of the success of the previous forecast for Tajikistan
TBD Discussion of the success of the previous forecast for Turkmenistan
Shermuhamedov Ulugbek Discussion of the success of the previous forecast for Uzbekistan
 

Group discussions Generalization of prognostic information and final wording of the consensus forecast for the summer of 2019.
Questions and Discussions

 

4/06

Session. Modeling and analysis of global and regional climate and related atmospheric processes.

Invited Papers

Perevedentsev Yu.P. Current climate changes in the trophostratosphere and interaction between the layers
 

Platov G.A. Study of the role of atmospheric forcing in the formation of the Arctic ice field
 

Volodin E.M. The mechanism of natural climate variations in the Arctic and the North Atlantic according to the climate model of the ICM RAS
 

Tolstykh MA Reproduction of the winter atmospheric circulation in Northern Eurasia by a model of the atmosphere and a joint model of the atmosphere and the ocean
 

Krupchatnikov V.N. On the interaction of variability of the mean flow and vortexes and systematic errors in models
 

Oral Papers

Kononova N.K. Formation of circulation mechanisms of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres
 

Zuev S.V. The determination of the state of the sky by solar radiation
 

Yudin M.S. Calculation of parameters of gravitational currents in the atmosphere using the finite element model
 

Serykh I.V. El Nino forecast based on global atmospheric oscillation
 

Nemirovskaya L.G. The regional aspect of the study of climate change on the example of studying some characteristics of precipitation regime (determined by different criteria) based on the creation of specialized arrays of their data for the south-east of Western Siberia
 

Anisimov A.E. Model test and added value from convective-resolving WRF simulations in Crimea
 

Dolgikh S. Approaches and results of assessing the likely climate change in Kazakhstan
 

Vargin P.N. Analysis of the variability of storm tracks from observational and modeling data
 

Platov G.A. Reverse research relations of the climate system in the formation of climate trends
Ushakov K.V. Features of numerical simulation of the climate of the tropics of the Pacific Ocean in a global eddy-resolving experiment
 

Ryazanov A.A. Comparative analysis of the assessment of hydrothermal conditions of the Tomsk region, using different coefficients of aridity
 

Volkova M.A. Spatio-temporal distribution of periods of low and high temperatures in the south of Western Siberia
 

Cheredko N.N. Regional features of energy redistribution in the climate system

Short Oral Papers

Yagovkina E.A. Wavelet Analysis Results
non-periodic fluctuations in sea level at Cape Kamenny (Ob Bay, Kara Sea)
 

Savelyeva E.S. Features of the dynamics of the Arctic polar vortex with a sudden stratospheric warming in 1984/1985.
 

Morozova S.V. The study of the mutual influence of global circulation objects using the methods of analysis of variance
Alimpieva MA. Comprehensive Study of Atmospheric Action Centers of the Atlantic-European Hemispheric Sector
 

Tarasevich M.A. Influence of various parameters of the climate model of ICM RAS on the reproduction of extreme precipitation
 

Kraevskaya N.Yu. Numerical simulation of breeze circulation using the WRF-ARW model
 

Shokurova I.G. Wind speed and wind stress vorticity over the Black Sea according to NCER \ NCAR and ERA Interim reanalyses: Seasonal and inter-annual variability
 

Zaporozhtsev I.F. Mesoscale and submesoscale processes in the polar front in the Barents Sea
 

Evstigneeva N.A. Analysis of the dynamic and energy characteristics of the circulation in the area near the western coast of Crimea and the north-western shelf with the assimilation of observations of temperature and salinity
 

Kozlova L.F. Analysis of tropopause characteristics in the arctic region
Semenova A.V. Assessment of the contribution of climatic factors to the formation of a flood wave

 

5.06

Session. Development of Earth System Model components.

Invited Papers

Golubeva E.N. Assessment of the contribution of the Atlantic and Pacific waters in the process of reducing the Arctic sea ice
 

Platov G.A. Investigation of the processes of cascading on
the shelf of the Arctic seas
 

Oral Papers

Veremskaya P.S. Subpolar Northern Atlantic longterm variability and deep convection simulated with the regional eddy-resolving ocean model
 

Shashkin V.V. Comparison of grids with quasi-uniform resolution on a sphere using the example of the numerical solution of shallow water equations
 

Chernov I.A. Joint numerical modeling of geophysical and biochemical processes in the oceans and seas with ice

Markova N.V. Features of the deep circulation of the Black Sea based on the results of reanalysis, climatic and prognostic calculations
 

Puzina O.S. Results of numerical simulation of the circulation of the Sea of ??Azov
Senderov M.V. Implementing nested nets in the Black Sea basin
 

Mizyuk A.I. Joint modeling of the circulation of the Black, Azov and Marmara Seas with high spatial resolution
 

Fedorov V.N. Geophysical causes of global climate change
 

Short Oral Papers

Prigarin S.M. Quasi-Gaussian models of the stochastic structure of atmospheric clouds
 

Molchanov M.S. Modeling the dynamics of the ecosystem of the central part of the Arctic basin in a changing climate
 

Basharin D.V. Estimation of the variability of surface air temperature and geopotential based on the data from the project of reanalysis of the 20th century
 

Dymova O.A. Evaluation of the sensitivity of the results of modeling the circulation of the Black Sea to the choice of boundary conditions on the free surface
 

Dovgaya S.V. Calculation and analysis of average seasonal velocity fields of the waters of the Sea of ??Marmara on the example of 2008
 

Selivanova Yu.V. Influence of ice cover in the Arctic on turbulent heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere
 

Naumov L.M. Water balance of the central part of the Norwegian Sea in a modern climate
 

Zatsepin A. G. Variability of the flow field in the coastal zone of the Black Sea in the region of Gelendzhik

 

Session. Land surface processes: observations, models, data assimilation.

Invited Paper

Lykosov V.N. Interaction of the atmospheric boundary layer with the active land layer and water bodies: observations and modeling
 

Oral Papers

Korotkova E.M. Satellite monitoring of changes in the vegetation cover of the Arctic under the influence of anthropogenic load
 

Ustinova I.G. Simulation of the response of annual rings of conifers to average daily changes in UV-B radiation according to radiometric and tomographic measurements
 

Dyukarev E.A. Assessment of carbon imbalances in forested wetlands during climate change from observational and modeling data
 

Kiselev M.V. Formation of the temperature regime of drained and natural wetlands in dry and overmoody years

Malinovskaya E.A. Simulation of the flow around 3D surfaces in the study of changes in aeolian relief forms
 

Makhnorylova S.V. Initialization of the moisture content of the active layer of the underlying surface for multilayer soil parameterization in the SLAV model
 

Short Oral Papers

Orlovsky A.N. Study of the spatial and temporal variability of temperature fields in the forests of the Murmansk region in the summer period (according to satellite sounding data for 2009-2018)
 

Antokhina O. Yu. Ratio of methane emissions from wetlands and the most extreme fires in Western Siberia based on AMIS / CAMS data
 

Martynova Yu.V. Assessment of CO2 flux variation for forest ecosystems of Russia in the context of climate change using the JSBACH model
 

Shtabkin Yu.A. Regional photochemical sources of tropospheric ozone in Siberia and the ETR
Frolov D.M. The design scheme of the depth of soil freezing on the basis of data on the features of seasonal snowfall, accumulation of snow thickness and temperature changes
 

Antokhin P.N. Simulation of methane concentration dynamics for the territory of Western Siberia in the conditions of summer atmospheric blocking

 

6.06

Session. Computational and Informational Technologies for Earth Sciences.

Invited Papers

Penenko V.V. Inverse problems for the study of climate-ecological processes in the conditions of anthropogenic impacts.
 

Klimova E.G. Bayesian approach to the problem of data assimilation based on the use of ensembles of forecasts and observations
 

Okladnikov I.G. Software package for cloud analysis of climate change and the environment: methods and approaches

Oral Papers

Platonov V.S. Creation of a long-term archive of high-resolution hydrometeorological information for the Russian Arctic: methodology and first results.
 

Lubkov A.S. Development of a model forecast of regional climate anomalies using artificial neural networks
 

Zarov E.A. Computer algorithms for typology of plant communities and mapping of forest-swamp areas
 

Dmitriev E.V. Automated classification of local meteorological phenomena based on ground-based measurements
 

Tolstikov A.V. Data for modeling processes in the White Sea
 

Vazaeva N.V. Statistics of convective formations in the atmospheric boundary layer based on acoustic sounding data
 

Short Oral Papers

Luferov V.S. Using artificial intelligence technology to analyze atmospheric circulation
 

Gosteva A.D. Numerical study of thermal fronts of the Barents Sea using gridded satellite sensing data using R programming language
 

Mukatova Zh.S. Numerical solution of inverse problems for impurity transformation models

 

Session. Future Earth Program and Northern Eurasia Future Initiative.

Invited Papers

Pavel Groisman Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) Focus on Human-Associated Extreme Events

Solomina Olga International program The Future of the Earth and Russia's participation in it
 

Georgiadi A.G. Long-term low-water and high-water
periods on the major rivers of Russia
 

Ginzburg A.S. The role of anthropogenic heat flux in regional climate processes
 

Gordov E.P. Thematic virtual research environment for analyzing climate change and its regional effects
Chernokulsky A.V. Dangerous phenomena of convective weather in Russia: statistics, interannual variability, risks of occurrence in the 21st century
 

Oral Papers

Gulsara Monkaeva Specialized Climate Services in Decision-Making in Kazakhstan
 

Platonov V.S. Spatial patterns of distribution of statistical characteristics of extreme wind speeds on. Sakhalin according to observations and high-resolution modeling.
 

Gordova Yu.E. Web portal for raising awareness of the population and decision makers about the implications of climate change for the region
 

Fedotova E.V. Development of estimates of wind energy potential for the territory of Russia
 

Kivva K.K. Climate impact on the distribution of the main Russian fisheries in the North Atlantic
 

Tartakovsky V.A. Monitoring the stress state of regional geosystems
 

Kostrykin S.V. Study of the influence of the variability of the optical parameters of sulphate aerosol on the characteristics of geoengineering effects in stabilizing the global surface temperature at a given level
 

Short Oral Papers

Kuchugura A.D. Study of the potential of recreational resources and the level of fire danger of certain territories of the Murmansk region
 

Kruglova E. Extreme Climate Indices in Observations, Reanalyses and Model Forecasts
 

Mirsaeva N.A. Analysis of aridity characteristics in the last millennium according to calculations with an ensemble of climate models